I like the Miners here on Friday night playing in their home state. This is not too much of a road game for a short week. Rice, is looking towards LA Tech next week since they have dominated UTEP over the years. A win next week would get them to play Marshall in the Conference USA Championship after they got beat easily a week ago. Both teams are run first offenses so this one is pretty easy to handicap with both teams ranked top 15 in rushing play % over 60%.
UTEP is better at running the ball averaging 5.0 ypc to Rice's 4.1, and 4.11 in conference play. UTEP has averaged 4.75 in conference play. For Rice in their success this season it's more on their defense. If they win they are stopping opposing running games and on paper it looks good when they are at home allowing just 3.07 ypc. However, I looked at the numbers and they are not that impressive. They allowed two opponents to rush over 4 yards per carry. The opponent rushing ypc ranks were 29th (they lost this game), 98th, 108, and 113. UTEP is ranked 26th and features two solid RB's along with an athletic QB in Jamael Showers. Rice has allowed over 6 yards per carry in their losses and 2.97 in their wins, but their run defense has not played well against good running teams like UTEP.
UTEP's defense is nothing to get excited about either and on paper they are just as bad, but this team is improving and has held all 4 of their last 4 opponents under 100 yards rushing with just 2 TD's. That even includes Western Kentucky who is 34th in the nation in rushing ypc while Rice just at 73rd. Rice does not have the QB that Western Kentucky has either and the Hilltoppers only won that game by 8.
Everything else is pretty similar between these two teams in conference play from while UTEP is a bit better on third down defense and passing defense Rice is better in the red zone, but at the end of the day both teams are similar, both want to run the ball and that gives me the feeling of close and tight game with Rice just losing to Marshall and looking ahead to LA Tech I think UTEP could surprise them. This is a team on the rise and this would be a huge upset worth more than any other win on the year except of course a bowl win because this team does not have a winning record in 10 years.
